There was a big push for strategic voting in the 2015 federal election when Justin Trudeau’s Liberals came to power.
In order to defeat Stephen Harper’s Conservatives, groups like Leadnow encouraged people to vote for the party that had the best chance of winning over the local Conservative candidate. This usually meant a Liberal or NDP candidate, and in a small number of cases a Green candidate (and Bloc Québécois in some Quebec ridings).
That year, the Liberals benefited the most from strategic voting, as their popularity rose and the NDP’s declined over the course of the campaign.
Liberals, being in the middle, usually gain the most from strategic voting, while the NDP and Greens tend to suffer.
Strategic voting is also sometimes used by right-wing voters when they choose the main conservative party over further-right parties.
Critics of strategic voting say vote counts don’t actually show support levels because people don’t end up voting for who they really want. It also means that smaller parties lose votes, making it harder for them to ever really compete. And strategic voting only works if people really know about their local riding’s contest.
Supporters of strategic voting say it has been an effective way to defeat candidates and parties that the majority opposes.
Strategic voting isn’t always needed to make that happen, though.
For example, in the core areas of Toronto south of Eglinton, most people vote either NDP or Liberal in provincial elections. Conservative candidates are rarely close. So people who want to make sure a conservative is defeated don’t need to vote strategically. They can vote for whoever they want.
For example, in the riding of Toronto Centre in 2022, NDP candidate Kristyn Wong-Tam got 44 per cent of the vote compared to 37 per cent for the Liberal candidate. Only 12 per cent voted for the PC.
But farther from downtown there are more three-way races, so some people may choose to vote strategically. And there have been some different two-way races, like between Liberals and Conservatives, or NDP and Conservatives. These sorts of races are more common in Etobicoke, Scarborough, uptown Toronto, North York, and other GTA municipalities.
Take Don Valley East as a case study. In 2022, Liberal Adil Shamji won with 44 per cent of the vote, the Conservatives got 32 per cent, and the NDP 16 per cent.
And in Scarborough Southwest, NDP candidate Doly Begum won with 48 per cent over the Conservative with 28 per cent and the Liberal with 19 per cent.
To see all previous election results, visit results.elections.on.ca or search your riding on Wikipedia. Just make sure to search “provincial electoral district” to get the right riding.
There are a few organizations co-ordinating strategic voting to defeat PC candidates, including VoteWell.ca, NotOneSeat.ca and CooperateForCanada.ca.
There are no major parties to the right of the PCs, so there is not a coordinated strategic vote campaign on the right-wing. In the past, some people have voted Liberal or Conservative strategically to defeat NDP and Green candidates.
Voting takes place on Thursday, Feb. 27, from 9 a.m. to 9 p.m. There is also advance voting from Feb. 20 to 22. Visit Ontario Elections for more info.
This article appeared in the 2025 Feb issue.