Horrific civil war in Sudan between two military factions has been raging since 2023, taking 15,000 lives and displacing more than 10 million people, making it the worst displacement crisis in the world.
The immediate cause of the conflict is a power struggle between two military leaders who previously governed together. The long-term causes are complex, but one aspect that cannot be ignored is the influence of the U.S., the United Arab Emirates (U.A.E) and Israel, a history that goes back decades.
In the Six-Day War in 1967, the new nation of Israel quickly won the battle against its neighbours Egypt, Jordan and Syria, who were members of the Arab League. Sudan quickly broke off relations with the U.S. because the Americans had backed Israel.
A few months after the war, the Arab League nations met in Sudan’s capital. They agreed on a resolution, known as the Khartoum Declaration, which included the statement: “No peace with Israel. No negotiation with Israel. No recognition of Israel.”
Many Palestinian refugees and leaders moved to Sudan over the years, pushed out of Palestine first during the 1948 Nakba which created Israel, and then in subsequent conflicts.
The U.S. and Sudan re-established relations in 1972, and for years the U.S. sent large amounts of aid funding. This successfully brought Sudan, and its oil reserves, into the U.S. sphere of influence during the Cold War era. The U.S. also toned down Sudan’s hostility to Israel, America’s closest ally in the region.
In 1989, Omar al-Bashir took control of Sudan in a military coup, became a dictator, introduced Islamic laws, and turned the country away from the Americans.
In 1993, the U.S. put Sudan on its list of state sponsors of terrorism (SST). The main groups the U.S. pointed to as “terror” groups that Sudan supposedly harboured at the time were all opposed to Israel, including groups based out of Palestine, Lebanon and Egypt: Abu Nidal, Hamas, Hezbollah, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, and Al-Gama’at al-Islamayya.
The U.S. also said Sudan supported “opposition groups” elsewhere.
Being on the SST list meant severe economic sanctions on Sudan.
In 2019, a popular movement overthrew the dictatorship of al-Bashir. Many Sudanese people were optimistic this could bring civilian rule and some form of secular democracy. But the military, which had immense power under al-Bashir, pushed its way in.
A coalition government was formed between civilian and military leaders, with civilian Abdalla Hamdok as prime minister.
The two main military leaders were Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, leader of the Sudanese Army, and Hemedti (Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo), formerly of the Janjaweed militia and now leader of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF).
In 2019, the U.S. under Donald Trump was pushing Middle Eastern and North African countries to normalize relations with Israel as part of the Abraham Accords. The U.S. was successful with the governments of the U.A.E., Bahrain, Morocco, and partially with Sudan.
“Normalization” here means recognizing Israel as a legitimate country and establishing diplomatic relations.
The Abraham Accords also in practice mean supporting America’s (and Canada’s) allies Saudi Arabia and the U.A.E., while effectively disavowing Palestine and Iran.
America’s offer to Sudan was that if it normalized with Israel, it would be removed from the SST list, ending the harsh economic sanctions.
Prime Minister Hamdok said in 2019 the government had “no mandate” to normalize with Israel, though he acknowledged getting off the state sponsors of terrorism list was a priority.
The military leaders in the government, though, were brazen about their desire to build ties with Israel.
The leader of the Sudanese Army, al-Burhan, met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in February 2020 in Uganda, a meeting that Hamdok publicly denounced.
And in August 2020, in violation of government policy, Hemedti met with the head of Mossad, Israel’s intelligence agency, in the U.A.E.
The U.S. and Israel effectively convinced al-Burhan and Hemedti they weren’t gaining anything from not recognizing Israel. Hamdok had little power to resist.
So in October 2020, Sudan, Israel and the U.S. announced Sudan and Israel had agreed to “end the state of belligerence between their nations,” agreeing in principle to the Abraham Accords.
The majority of Sudan’s population disagreed with this position, and the move sparked protests. One politician, Sadiq al-Mahdi, said this would contribute to “the ignition of a new war.”
A year later, in 2021, the military leaders had Hamdok and other civilian politicians arrested and took control of the government in a military coup. In the streets, the military cracked down, arresting, injuring and killing many.
At that point, while Sudan had signed part of the Abraham Accords, it had not signed the corresponding document that would formally normalize relations with Israel. The U.S. condemned the coup and cut off some aid, stating it wants a civilian government in power that will normalize relations with Israel, not a military coup government that would be seen as an illegitimate signatory.
A power struggle developed after the coup, eventually blowing up into a full-on civil war in April 2023. Hemedti’s Rapid Support Forces (RSF) attacked al-Burhan’s Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) bases in the capital of Khartoum, and the SAF bombed back in response.
Neither side represents the will of most people, though many see Hemedti’s RSF as the worse aggressor.
The RSF is openly backed by the U.A.E, a close U.S. ally. Sudanese people have called on musicians not to play concerts in the U.A.E. Macklemore cancelled his show there and put out a statement. SZA, meanwhile, has not cancelled her show, scheduled for November 2024.
There is evidence the RSF has received Israeli-made weapons, and Hemedti has been enthusiastic about being closer with Israel.
For its part, Israel has publicly stayed out of the conflict, as have the U.S., Canada and U.K., choosing instead to sanction leaders and push for peace.
Al-Burhan’s side, the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), has received backing from Iran.
In terms of the aims of U.S. foreign policy, it may not matter much which military leader wins and takes power, given both leaders recently showed a willingness to work with the U.S. and to normalize with Israel. But some U.S. leaders may prefer to work with Hemedti, given his alliances.
While these nations and leaders jostle for their place in the eventual power structure, the Sudanese people pay the price.
Severe restrictions on Sudanese immigration in Canada
Canada is allowing very few people to come from Sudan even though it is the site of the worst displacement crisis on earth. The Sudan Solidarity Collective is pressuring the government to change this, pointing out that “the Canadian response to displaced Ukrainians was exceptional, admitting an unlimited number of people on temporary visas and creating a pathway to permanent residency without a cap.” The group is also raising funds for those caught in the conflict in Sudan.
This article appeared in the 2024 Oct/Nov issue.
